Cruise
Cruise Munich engineering office also has a website: https://cruisemunich.de/en-US
Ownership
GM / Honda / Microsoft / Walmart
Status
Operating in Dubai. Testing in Phoenix
Consumers have to sign up for the waitlist via the GetCruise.com website. Minimum age 13.
Announced Tokyo
End of 2023 to April 2024
At the end of 2023 there was a US pause in operations between October 2023 and April 2024. The following notes remain documented here for historical purposes.
For more on the resumption of US operations (April 2024), read https://www.getcruise.com/news/blog/2024/cruise-resumes-manual-driving-as-next-step-in-return-to-driverless-mission/
"Several more cities are planned for 2023, and Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt said the company aims to hit $1 billion in revenue by 2025."
Source: https://www.axios.com/2022/11/23/cruise-waymo-robotaxis-ford-gm-autonomous-vehicles
Some maths on Cruise’s 2025 $1b revenue goal:
Cruise's total fleet consists of about 300 self-driving Chevrolet Bolts across all three cities, Lindow said.
Cruise's fleet is a drop in the bucket when you consider there are about 30,000 Uber and Lyft vehicles in operation in San Francisco and about 100,000 in New York City, Abuelsamid said. Excluding taxis and other smaller players, the ride hail market in the United States was about a $45 billion industry as of last year, he said.
That's why building those 5,000 Origins at Factory Zero and getting them on the road is key to Cruise reaching its publicly stated revenue target, Abuelsamid said. And, he said, while hitting $1 billion in revenue is certainly doable, it will likely be nowhere near profitability.
"It’s hard to say how much they might lose in 2025, but the number is almost definitely going to be bigger than that revenue number," Abuelsamid said.
In his math, if Cruise charges the same fares as Uber and Lyft, which is about $2.50 a mile, it needs about 400 million miles with passengers paying that fare to hit $1 billion. To do that will require about 5,500 robotaxis, he said.
"If you conservatively say, 'We’ll put 500 vehicles in each city we operate in,' that’s 10 to 11 cities. Right now they’re in three with about a couple hundred Bolts," Abuelsamid said, adding that expansion to 10 cities by the end of 2025 "is not unreasonable."
For even more analysis of the $1 billion revenue target, read this from SeekingAlpha https://seekingalpha.com/article/4563159-general-motors-cruise-path-to-1-billion-revenue
That said,” Vogt continued, “for perspective, there are over 10,000 human ride-hail drivers in San Francisco, potentially much more than that. Those drivers, of course, aren’t working 24 hours a day like a robot taxi could. It doesn’t take a very high number to generate significant revenue in a city like San Francisco, but certainly there is the capacity to absorb several thousand per city at a minimum.
Vehicle
Test vehicles
Cruise Origin
Capacity: 4 guests
Consumer prices
San Francisco: ($5.00 base fare + $0.40 per minute + $0.90 per mile ) * 1.015 city tax (1.15%)
Source: Cruise email August 2023
Competitors Uber Technologies Inc. and Lyft Inc. usually charge about $5 a mile in San Francisco and take roughly 20% of that as a fee, leaving the rest for the driver. Cutting out the driver, Cruise wants to keep its costs to $1 to $1.50 a mile, leaving more profit for the company, Mr. Nash said.
“That margin between the $5 and the $1.50 gives us a lot more flexibility about pricing and allows us to still get a healthy margin,” Mr. Nash said.
Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cruise-cfo-works-to-finalize-cost-structure-for-robotaxi-venture-11645619400 February 2022
The cost for riding in one of Cruise’s driverless vehicles will vary depending on the length of the trip and the time of day. According to an example provided by the company, a customer taking a 1.3-mile trip would pay $0.90 per mile and $0.40 per minute, in addition to a $5 base fee and 1.5 percent city tax, for a total of $8.72. (By comparison, an Uber ride for the same trip would cost at least $10.41.)
Source: https://www.theverge.com/2022/6/23/23180156/cruise-driverless-vehicle-charge-riders-san-francisco June 2022
1 USD a mile
Source: Video below
Long term vision
Most major US cities 2027. Some personally owned vehicles available to purchase 2027.
(We don't know how Cruise define a major city. One way of decoding what they said is there are 300 or so cities with over 50,000 population in the US. Another way of decoding their statement could be to assume 2 major cities per state, and if Cruise are targeting a majority, they may have meant 50 cities or so)
Source: https://www.inc.com/christine-lagorio-chafkin/google-self-driving-cars-cruise-founder-kyle-vogt-what-i-know-podcast.html March 2022
1 million robotaxis by 2030.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/07/gm-backed-cruise-targets-1-million-self-driving-vehicles-by-2030.html October 2021
General Motors CEO Mary Barra said on Tuesday (26 July 2022) she is still bullish on Cruise and reaffirmed a forecast that the business could generate $50 billion a year in revenue from automated vehicle services and technology by 2030
Source: https://insideevs.com/news/600734/general-motors-cruise-robotaxi-unit-is-losing-5-million-usd-a-day/ (Includes other finance numbers)
Dan Ammann (CEO at the time) presenting at GM Investor day
Podcasts
Song
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